Sporting CP vs LASK

Sporting CP go into the meeting with LASK unbeaten in their last ten matches, with seven wins and three draws. The home picture is just as solid: four wins and one draw from the last five, averaging 2.6 goals scored. This is a side that wins consistently and rarely does so by the narrowest of margins, and that is precisely the point of combining the win with over 1.5 goals.

Nor does LASK give any reason to expect a tight, closed game. The Austrians have averaged 2.2 goals scored over their last ten, but have also conceded 1.9, and they have lost five of those matches. Away from home they have two wins, one draw and two defeats from five games. When a Sporting side averaging 2.5 goals comes up against a defence that leaks like that, it is easy to picture the goals arriving.

The objection is nonetheless a real one. LASK shoot a lot, averaging more than 20 attempts on the road, and could well create enough to take something from the game. Sporting have also drawn three of their last ten, and a narrow 1–0 win would sink the bet as well. The sample is limited to the last ten matches, and it tells us nothing about how the two sides measure up against each other.

I am going with Sporting CP to win and over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.43, for one unit. It is a short price, so this rests on a reasonable match picture rather than any proven pricing edge.