Saint-Étienne vs Nantes

Saint-Étienne go into this fixture in form that is hard to ignore. Eight wins and just one defeat in their last ten matches says plenty, but it is the home numbers that really stand out: five straight wins on their own ground, averaging 3.2 goals scored. Five matches is admittedly a limited sample, but the direction is clear.

Nantes, for their part, have struggled more. Their last five away games have brought one win, one draw and three defeats, with averages of 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. This is not a side that has so far shown it can handle pressure on the road, which makes it sensible to let the hosts cover both the win and the draw in this combination.

The scenario I have in mind is Saint-Étienne taking the initiative and creating enough to get the scoreboard moving, while Nantes can chip in at the other end. The visitors have, after all, averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over their last ten matches, so the picture points more towards two or more goals than a tight, closed affair. Add the fact that Saint-Étienne have averaged 13.3 shots over their last ten, and the two legs fit together well.

The weakness is that Nantes have also played several tight games recently, with results such as 0-0 and 1-0 twice. If this turns into a slow, nervy evening, the goals line could fail even if the home side avoid defeat. Even so, I am going with over 1.5 goals combined with Saint-Étienne or the draw at odds of 1.52, with one unit staked.