Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest

Ipswich have rarely been involved in dull games lately. They are averaging 1.7 goals scored across their last ten matches, but they are also conceding two, and at home the average is 1.8 at both ends. Results such as 2–4 and 2–1 at home, and 3–2 and 2–3 away, point to a side that both creates chances and gives them away. That is exactly the profile that puts over 2.5 goals in play tonight.

Nottingham Forest look different away from home compared with their overall picture. Over their last five away matches they have averaged 1.6 goals scored and 2.2 conceded, and they have produced 16.5 shots per game where shot data is available. Those away games finished 3–1 and 2–1, while their low-scoring matches came at home. If Forest come up against an Ipswich side that allows plenty themselves, the game could open up.

I'm going with over 2.5 goals, with a stake of one unit.