Romania vs Sweden

I'm on Sweden to win with Over 1.5 goals, a single at 1.99.

The main reason is Romania's defence. They have lost all three of their Nations League matches and conceded 12 goals, most recently a 6-0 hammering in Poland and a 4-2 home defeat to Bosnia and Herzegovina. Every one of those three games went over 2.5. A team leaking like that at home does not give you much reason to fear a low-scoring night.

Sweden need the three points tonight, and they have the form to get them. They top the group with seven points, have scored in all three matches and beat this same Romania side 2-1 only last month. Their weak spot is that both teams have scored in every Sweden game in the competition, but that only helps the goals line as long as they win.

The danger is a scrappy draw like their 1-1 in Bosnia, their only away game so far, or a 1-0. Sweden on their own are 1.75, so 1.99 for adding a second goal against this defence looks like good value to me.