Hellas vs Tyskland

I'm backing over 1.5 goals, Greece +2.5 on the Asian handicap, over 5.5 Germany corners, over 1.5 Greece cards and over 15.5 Germany shots, all in one bet builder at 5.5.

Germany have started this Nations League badly, but they are still shooting on sight. They average 19.3 shots and 7 corners a game across their three matches in the competition. With only 4 points so far and that 1-0 home defeat to Greece still fresh, I expect them to push hard and pin Greece back. That one idea carries the shots and corners legs.

The cards fit the same picture. A desperate Greece defending deep will have to stop transitions, and they have averaged 2.3 cards a game in the tournament. The +2.5 handicap gives us cover, as Germany have scored just 3 goals in their three Nations League matches. Over 1.5 goals rests on Greece, who have scored in all three of their games.

The risk is honest enough. Their only away game brought Germany 1 corner and 10 shots, and an early German lead that kills the tempo would hurt several legs. Still, at 5.5 for one coherent game script, I'm happy to take it.